标普500指数牛市恐转熊? 下周2大事考验美股牛气多旺
文章来源: 经济日报 于
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美股标普500指数8日收盘跃入牛市,比去年10月低点翻扬逾20%,挥别纠缠248个交易日的熊抱。同一天,美国初领失业救济金人数升至近两年来最高。股市投资人太乐观了吗?
摩根大通全球市场分析师团队的研究显示,如果美国股市以债市的观点来看待经济前景,标普500指数恐怕会立刻跌回熊市。
摩根大通团队今年初发布报告,检视在美国10年期公债实质殖利率与标普500指数公允价值模型中,通膨不确定性分别扮演何种角色。
这涉及复杂的计算,但最后结论是:“债市价格仍计入总体经济不确定性将持续居高不下一段时期的风险,即使过去三个月来这种风险已稍微降低。对照下,股市看来‘价格反映完美情境’,标普现在的价位,比用疫情爆发至今总经波动率算出的公允价值估计值还要高。”
摩根大通策略师团队指出,假如股市像债市那样,把通膨波动性升高的因素也计入市价,那暗示美股可能比目前价位下跌20%。假如美股果真从高峰回跌20%,将符合“熊市”的技术性定义。
这群策略师未明说,什么事情发生会让股市变得像债市那么忧心忡忡。但显然近期最令股市投资人忐忑不安的事,莫过于通膨和联准会(Fed)利率展望。
就连华尔街大多头Fundstrat Global Advisors共同创办人Tome
Lee也宣称,下周可能是2023年底前最关键的一周,因为通膨数据13日(周二)出炉,紧接着Fed公布最新利率决策。通膨是否复炽?Fed升息是会暂停还是延续?市场正屏息观望。
Lee个人认为,通膨大趋势是往下走,最新数据可能低于华尔街共识预测。
然而,近日来,世界各地通膨高于预期引起的惊呼声此起彼落,9日挪威也传出通膨高得出乎意料之外。挪威5月核心通膨年增率跃上6.7%,大幅超越分析师预估的6.0%。
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