去年底投资人和分析师预测2023年市场大势时,共识看法是:美国面临经济衰退,美国公债史上最惨跌势终结。这两项预测看来都杠龟了,但用来展望2024年应该大致适用。
金融时报报导,目前对明年趋势的共识预测仍是:美国面临衰退,历史性美债跌势终结。略有不同的是,经济会“温和”衰退,而非“硬着陆”,随央行连串升息开始刺痛经济,公债吸引力随之提升。
押对大趋势对债市很重要,对其他靠债券价格锚定的资产行情也很重要。一年前,分析师和投资人因误判2023年走势,大栽跟头。欧洲最大资产管理公司Amundi投资长莫提耶说:“去年,我们预见债券凯旋回归。但话说得有点早。”
结果,“债券年”没来,债市反而跌得唏哩哗啦。基准的美国10年期公债殖利率从4月低点3.3%左右猛然跃起,10月下旬升上5%,上回触及这么高是在金融海啸爆发前。债券价格与殖利率走向相反。
殖利率升上5%引来强劲买盘。莫提耶说:“现在我们比以往更确信,优质债券可重新纳入投资组合。”他预期,到2024年底,10年期美债殖利率将降到3.7%。
瑞银财富管理建议客户考虑“锁住”位于相对高档的殖利率,理由是明年经济可能减缓,年底前联准会(Fed)可能已数度降利率。
固定收益策略师法科妮欧认为,明年成长减速的影响,将凌驾新债大量发行的冲击。
不过,来年可能延续震荡走势。美债殖利率从今年9月的4%跳上5%,随后大幅回落,短短六周兜了一圈。PGIM固定收益投资长彼德斯认为,殖利率短期内暴起暴落会吓跑买家,因为显示美债涨过头,反映不切实际的想法─Fed停止升息,明年猛烈降息。
美银(BofA)意见调查显示,投资人做多美债的押注是20年来第三高,料定明年殖利率走低的基金经理人占比更创新高,达61%。市场气氛如此亢奋,投资人宜三思。
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