美国劳工部8日公布,11月非农就业人口增加19.9万人,高于预估的18.5万人,部分是因为汽车工人罢工结束,使就业人口约增加3万人所致,且是连续第二个新增就业人口低于今年来每月均值,加上9、10两月就业人数共下修3.5万人,显示就业市场紧俏程度仍持续缓解中。
11月失业率则意外下降0.2个百分点至3.7%,低于市场预估的持平为3.9%;劳动参与率小升0.1个百分点,为62.8%,显示劳工就业意愿略升。就业不足率(U6)由7.2%降到7%,显示从事兼职工作的人数略减。
美国11月劳动市场意外温和回升,新增就业人口与薪资都升高,失业率也意外下降,降低了联准会(Fed)明年初就会降息的希望,美元指数与美债殖利率8日盘中都回升。
报告公布后,美元指数8日盘中升值0.4%至104.09,美国2年期公债殖利率8日盘中上涨8个基点至4.662,10年期公债殖利率也小涨9个基点,报4.220%。
经济学者表示,11月就业报告虽显示劳动市场持续降温,但略优于预估,也显示市场最近对于Fed最快明年3月就会降息的押注太过头,预料Fed
12月会议将维持利率不变,但明年初升息的几率下滑。彭博资讯策略师认为,11月就业报告将给Fed延后降息的理由。
上月平均时薪月比成长0.4%,高于预估的0.3%,年比则攀升4%,符合预估。平均每人每周工时维持为34.4小时。
报告显示,11月民间部门就业仅增加15万人,略低于预估,但比10月时的新增8.5万人(修正数)明显好转。制造业增加2.8万人,大致符合预估,但比10月的减少3.5万人好转,主要是反映汽车工人罢工结束。医疗保健、休闲、旅宿业及政府聘雇人数都增加。
LH
Meyer/货币政策分析公司认为,市场对于Fed明年会降息多次的预期将会降温,Fed决策官员也将利用这份报告呼吁保持耐心、维持利率不变更久。
现在市场焦点将转向美国预定下周公布的11月通膨报告,供Fed决策官员决定要维持本轮升息循环的高峰利率多久,若物价增幅进一步降温,可能帮助促使Fed降息,因为就业市场热度已可能不会再升温。
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