旧金山联邦准备银行总裁戴利(偏鸽派)说,由于今年通膨状况改善,联准会开始展望2024年降息是合宜的,以免过度紧缩。欧洲央行(ECB)和加拿大央行也都有决策官员说,预计会在明年某个时间点降息。
明年有联准会(Fed)决策投票权的戴利18日接受华尔街日报访问时表示,她对利率和通膨展望,与上周19位联准会官员的预测中值“非常接近”。他们大多数人都暗示,明年以每次调降1码的步调至少降息三次,因通膨下降速度比预期快。戴利说,若通膨持续最近几个月的稳步下降,即使明年降息三次,联准会的利率仍有相当的限制性。
戴利正关注限制性政策对劳动市场的影响。戴利说,当失业率开始上升,往往升很多,而不是一点点,因此“必须要有前瞻性,才不会稳住物价,却夺走工作机会”。
Fed官员近日谈话她说,联准会现在必须把注意力同时放在其职责的两个面向,“还有更多工作要做,目前这些工作不仅包括关注将通膨率降到2%,还须认识到我们想要继续温和推动,尽可能减少对劳动市场的干扰。”
戴利说,降息可以在通膨下降时维持名义利率稳定,从而防范经通膨调整后的实质利率上升。若实质利率上升,会提高“容易过度紧缩”的可能性。
但她也说,现在揣测联准会明年会在哪几次会议改变政策立场,还为时过早。她认为,未来几个月,通膨可能显现出持续顽抗的迹象,经济前景可能转变,需要联准会在更长的时间内维持更高的利率。另一方面,通膨也可能更快下降,或劳动市场比现在更明显的疲软,从而证明有理由采取较宽松的政策。
此外,ECB管委会成员、法国央行总裁戴加祐19日向France
Inter电台表示,利率在4%高峰足够长的时间以确保抑制通膨后,ECB应在明年某个时点调降借贷成本。最新数据显示,欧元区11月通膨年增率终值仍是2.4%,月增率则较先前微幅下修至负0.6%。
加拿大央行总裁马克林18日也告诉彭博电视台,他预期央行会在明年开始降息,条件是要先看到核心通膨率出现连续数月下滑的趋势,不是一、两个月,而是“好几个月”,这是他对加国央行何时开始宽松货币政策、迄今所释出最明确的说法。
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